Chicago AM Tuesday 31 May 2011
Editors, The Chicago Tribune
Gentlepeople:
The Chicago Tribune has an interesting and well written story “Explaining the science of this spring's tornadoes” on Wednesday 25 May. It answers the question “Are the stronger storms a result of global warming?” with the definitive statement “It is impossible to link specific storms … to climate change” but then quickly gets over its head quoting “predictions of ... climate change models” that “we'll be in for more intense storms as average global temperatures climb,” concluding “that is what appears to be happening.”
Climate change is a ripe field for the use of mathematical models: things are always changing, and there appears to be considerable data to use as model input.
But as considerable as the data appears, its inconsequence can easily be demonstrated by using another model: projecting the planet's age onto that of an 80-year-old human being. Such a model shows one Earth year as being 0.562 seconds of that geezer's 80-year life span. This means that since humans first appeared on earth 6.5 million years ago, it was only 39 days ago in our 80-year-old human lifespan model.
More startling examples: earliest known use of charcoal (carbon) by humans, for the reduction of copper, zinc and tin ores in 4459 BC, was 54 minutes ago to our 80-year-old. Humans had no idea of measuring temperature before Galileo's invention of the thermometer in 1593, 4 minutes ago to our geezer. Discovery of carbon dioxide in 1630, 3 minutes 30 seconds ago to our geezer.
If a doctor takes a geezer's blood pressure at 119/79, then again five minutes later and gets 121/80, you can make a model that shows the geezer will have a fatal stroke tomorrow afternoon when his BP reaches 400/200.
“Climate change.” Hoax, anyone?
Arnold H Nelson
5056 North marine Drive Chicago 60640
773-677-3010 ah_nelson@yahoo.com
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