Monday, July 16, 2012

To NYTimes on climate change

Chicago Friday PM 13 July 2012

Editors, The New York Times


The New York Times Editorial “Heating Up” [Tuesday 10 July 2012] opens with a litany of recent weather/climate problems (ruined crops, heat-related deaths) raising the question of whether these extreme weather events can be attributed to human-induced climate change. The answer... a qualified yes.

And qualified it certainly is: “dangerous heat waves are 'very likely' to become more common,” “the 11 years from 2001-11 rank 'among' the 13 warmest globally since record-keeping began 132 years ago,” “it is 'virtually' certain that increases in ...the frequency... of warm daily temperature extremes...  will occur in the 21st century on the global scale.” 

Odd that no mention is made of how these predictions are determined:  mathematical models.  Ttake a series of documented climate conditions from the past, put them in a computer, and viola! Disaster is inevitable!

What is never admitted is the pathetically small set of past performance data it has to work with.  This can be demonstrated with another mathematical model:  projecting the planet's 4.5 billion year age on to an   80-year human lifeime.  Such a model shows one year of earth time equivalent to 0.562 seconds of an 80-year human life span.

This means humans first appeared in our model earth 39 days ago. They had no idea of measuring temperature before Galileo's 1593 thermometer invention, 4 minutes ago to our senior citizen; discovery of carbon dioxide in 1630? 3 minutes 30 seconds ago. 

Even the numbers quoted  in the editorial ('11 years from 2001-11',  'since record-keeping began 132 years ago',  and 'average temperature in the contiguous US for the first six months of this year'), are 6.2, 74, and 0.28 seconds, respectively.
If an MD takes an 80 year-old's blood pressure and gets 120 over 80, does it again 5 minutes later and gets 124 over 78, would she call 911 for an ambulance?

Arnold H Nelson

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